Stochastic modelling of the hybrid survival curve

Chong It Tan (), Jackie Li, Johnny Siu-Hang Li and Uditha Balasooriya
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Chong It Tan: Australian National University
Jackie Li: Macquarie University
Johnny Siu-Hang Li: University of Waterloo
Uditha Balasooriya: Nanyang Technological University

Journal of Population Research, 2016, vol. 33, issue 4, No 1, 307-331

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, building upon the idea of cross-sectional survival probabilities developed by Brouard (Espaces Popul Soc 2(14–15):157–168, 1986), we propose using stochastic models to study the evolution of a new type of survival curves called hybrid survival curve. We find that the three-factor survival model provides a better model fitting than the two-factor survival model. Furthermore, the three time-varying parameters are highly interpretable and their respective trends can be used as an indicator for the rectangularisation of survival curve. On top of that, we demonstrate how the time-varying parameters can be extrapolated into the future to obtain projected hybrid survival curves.

Keywords: Period survival curves; Cohort survival curves; Rectangularisation; Stochastic models; Time-varying parameters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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DOI: 10.1007/s12546-016-9168-x

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