A turning point in Italian fertility

Marcantonio Caltabiano ()
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Marcantonio Caltabiano: Università di Messina

Journal of Population Research, 2016, vol. 33, issue 4, No 4, 379-397

Abstract: Abstract The second half of the 1990s was a turning point in Italian fertility: the postponement of births slowed and there was an increasing tendency to recover fertility after the age of 30. To study the determinants of this change, we employ individual-level data from the 2003 survey Family and Social Subjects, held by the Italian National Institute of Statistics. We focus on first births, analyzing the key role of education as a driving force both of postponement and then recovery, controlling also for relevant characteristics such as women’s employment status and family background. We estimate a probit model for postponement and an event history analysis model for recovery, thus offering a picture of both processes. Our findings indicate that the postponement of first order fertility in Italy involved mostly women holding a university degree in younger cohorts. Moreover, in the early 2000s a recovery process at later ages was just beginning, even if limited in magnitude. Finally, significant differences at a regional level were found: specifically, until recently, southern Italy still displayed a limited birth postponement and no recovery.

Keywords: Fertility postponement; Fertility recovery; Education; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1007/s12546-016-9169-9

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