A modified common factor model for modelling mortality jointly for both sexes

Kenneth Wong (), Jackie Li and Sixian Tang
Additional contact information
Kenneth Wong: Macquarie University
Jackie Li: Macquarie University
Sixian Tang: Macquarie University

Journal of Population Research, 2020, vol. 37, issue 2, No 4, 212 pages

Abstract: Abstract There is an increasing attention on the joint modelling of multiple populations. Populations are related in several ways, such as neighbouring countries, females and males, and socioeconomic subgroups within a population. They are associated due to certain common driving forces, and mortality projection models should be constructed to allow for such underlying relationships. One such example is the Poisson common factor model. In this paper, we consider some extensions of the original Poisson common factor model. The first is to use a different number of additional factors for each sex. With this, the potential trend differences between the two sexes can be captured. The second is to incorporate a common age sensitivity effect into the additional factors. It may help improve parameter parsimony. A hybrid version between these two extensions is also considered. Overall, the modified versions deliver better fitting and projection results than the original model, using mortality data from eight developed countries. Qualitatively speaking, the new models provide much more flexibility in modelling populations with different mortality patterns. Empirically, they are shown to be able to produce improved performance in fitting and projection. The models are selected as the optimal choices based on information criteria statistics, and they tend to produce more accurate forecasts of the male-to-female ratios of death rates.

Keywords: Mortality forecasting; Poisson common factor model; Coherent forecasts; Sex ratio of death rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12546-020-09243-z Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:joprea:v:37:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s12546-020-09243-z

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer ... tudies/journal/12546

DOI: 10.1007/s12546-020-09243-z

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Population Research is currently edited by Santosh Jatrana, Dharmalingam Arunachalam, Aude Bernard, Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Ann Evans, Michael Haan, Brian Houle, Trude Lappegård and Gordon Carmichael

More articles in Journal of Population Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().