Comparing COVID-19 fatality across countries: a synthetic demographic indicator

Simona Bignami- Van Assche () and Daniela Ghio ()
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Simona Bignami- Van Assche: Université de Montréal
Daniela Ghio: European Commission Joint Research Centre

Journal of Population Research, 2022, vol. 39, issue 4, No 4, 513-525

Abstract: Abstract Background The case fatality rate (CFR) is one of the most important measures for monitoring disease progression and evaluating appropriate policy health measures over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. To remove biases arising from the age structure of COVID-19 cases in international comparisons of the CFR, existing studies have relied mainly on direct standardisation. Objective We propose and validate a synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality (SCFR) that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases without relying on the arbitrary choice of a standard population. Results Contrary to what comparisons of the crude CFR suggest, differences in COVID-19 fatality across countries according to the proposed SCFR are not very stark. Importantly, once we adjust for the age structure of COVID-19 cases, the higher case fatality among men emerges as the main driver of international differences in COVID-19 CFR. Conclusions The SCFR is a simple indicator that is useful for monitoring the fatality of SARS-CoV-2 mutations and the efficacy of health policy measures for COVID-19, including vaccination. Contributions (1) A simple synthetic indicator of COVID-19 fatality that improves its comparability across countries by adjusting for the age and sex structure of COVID-19 cases; (2) Evidence that sex differences in COVID-19 fatality drive international differences in the overall CFR.

Keywords: case-fatality rate; COVID-19; age structure; standardisation; synthetic indicators (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s12546-022-09289-1

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