Bringing mortality back into our understanding of fertility change: revisiting the onset of fertility transitions using net reproduction measures

Vegard Skirbekk () and Thomas Spoorenberg ()
Additional contact information
Vegard Skirbekk: Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Thomas Spoorenberg: United Nations Population Division

Journal of Population Research, 2025, vol. 42, issue 4, No 3, 17 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper argues for the reintegration of mortality into studies of fertility transition by using net reproduction measures rather than solely focusing on total fertility rates (TFR). Accounting for mortality through metrics like the 2-Sex Net Reproductive Rate (2SNRR) would change our understanding of fertility transitions globally. Using global data for 236 countries (1950–2023), the analysis shows that the 2SNRR-based fertility transitions typically occur later, at lower peak levels, and with less dramatic declines than TFR-based assessments suggest. This difference is particularly pronounced in regions with high mortality rates, such as parts of Africa and Southern Asia. The study reveals that seven countries have yet to begin their fertility transitions when mortality is considered, challenging the notion that fertility decline is universal. Incorporating mortality into fertility analyses provides a more nuanced understanding of demographic transitions and has important implications for population policies and the degree to which current and historical reproductive patterns differ from net replacement levels.

Keywords: Onset of fertility transition; Net fertility; Total fertility rate; Mortality; Reproduction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12546-025-09394-x Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:joprea:v:42:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s12546-025-09394-x

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer ... tudies/journal/12546

DOI: 10.1007/s12546-025-09394-x

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Population Research is currently edited by Santosh Jatrana, Dharmalingam Arunachalam, Aude Bernard, Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Ann Evans, Michael Haan, Brian Houle, Trude Lappegård and Gordon Carmichael

More articles in Journal of Population Research from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().