'Traffic light' theory for Covid-19 spatial mitigation policy design

Xieer Dai, Michael Beenstock, Daniel Felsenstein (), David Genesove and Nikita Kotsenko
Additional contact information
Xieer Dai: University of Shenzhen
Michael Beenstock: Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Daniel Felsenstein: Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Nikita Kotsenko: Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Journal of Spatial Econometrics, 2023, vol. 4, issue 1, 1-35

Abstract: Abstract We suggest the use of outdegrees from graph theory to rank locations in terms of their contagiousness. We show that outdegrees are equal to the column sums of spatial autoregressive matrices, which may be estimated using econometric methods for spatial panel data. In contrast to outdegree, R is invalid for 'traffic light' shading because it fails to distinguish between the export and import of contagion between sub-national locations. Simulation methods are used to illustrate the concept of outdegrees and its structural determinants in terms of centrality, indigenous contagion and spatial contagion. An empirical illustration is presented for Israel. A secondary criterion for traffic light shading involves the stochastic structure of morbidity shocks, which induce 'spiking' through their autoregressive persistence, conditional heteroscedasticity and diffusion jump parameters.

Keywords: Covid-19; Traffic light policy; Outdegrees; Spatial panel data; Spatial epidemiology; C31; C33; I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43071-022-00033-8 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:jospat:v:4:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s43071-022-00033-8

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://www.springer.com/journal/43071

DOI: 10.1007/s43071-022-00033-8

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Spatial Econometrics is currently edited by Giuseppe Arbia, Lung Fei Lee and James LeSage

More articles in Journal of Spatial Econometrics from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().