A Behavioral Interpretation of Belief Functions

Timber Kerkvliet and Ronald Meester ()
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Timber Kerkvliet: VU University Amsterdam
Ronald Meester: VU University Amsterdam

Journal of Theoretical Probability, 2018, vol. 31, issue 4, 2112-2128

Abstract: Abstract Shafer’s belief functions were introduced in the seventies of the previous century as a mathematical tool in order to model epistemic probability. One of the reasons that they were not picked up by mainstream probability was the lack of a behavioral interpretation. In this paper, we provide such a behavioral interpretation and re-derive Shafer’s belief functions via a betting interpretation reminiscent of the classical Dutch Book Theorem for probability distributions. We relate our betting interpretation of belief functions to the existing literature.

Keywords: Belief functions; Dutch Book; Behavioral interpretation; Axioms of probability; Epistemic probability; Gamble; Guaranteed revenue; Lower prevision; 60A55; 62C99 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1007/s10959-017-0776-y

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