Forecasting Inflation Rate: Professional Against Academic, Which One is More Accurate

Hossein Hassani (), Jan Coreman, Saeed Heravi and Joshy Easaw
Additional contact information
Hossein Hassani: University of Tehran
Jan Coreman: Bournemouth University
Saeed Heravi: Cardiff University
Joshy Easaw: Swansea University

Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2018, vol. 16, issue 3, No 2, 646 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper evaluates the professional forecasts, those made by financial and non-financial forecasters and the aggregate between them, by comparing their results to academic forecasts. The US quarterly inflation rate and the professional forecasts are considered for the period of 1981 third quarter to 2012 final quarter. This paper examines whether academic forecasts outperforms the professional forecasts. For short term inflation forecasting the professional forecasters (non-financial, financial and the aggregate) proved to be the most accurate, however for long term inflation forecasting academic forecasts showed to be most accurate. The results also indicate that the long term aggregate forecasts related to information from the aggregate short term forecasts and current inflation rate. Furthermore, financial forecasters use the short term non-financial forecasts in their expectations and the non-financial forecasters use the short term financial forecasts in their long term expectations. In addition, the results confirm causality between the short and long term forecasts of the non-financial forecasters. For the financial inflation forecasts, there is no causality between the short and long term financial forecasts.

Keywords: Forecasting inflation rate; Professional forecast; Causality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40953-017-0114-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:16:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-017-0114-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/40953

DOI: 10.1007/s40953-017-0114-3

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Quantitative Economics is currently edited by Dilip Nachane and P.G. Babu

More articles in Journal of Quantitative Economics from Springer, The Indian Econometric Society (TIES) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().