Value-at-Risk in the Presence of Structural Breaks Using Unbiased Extreme Value Volatility Estimator

Dilip Kumar

Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2020, vol. 18, issue 3, No 5, 587-610

Abstract: Abstract We provide a framework based on the unbiased extreme value volatility estimator to predict long and short position value-at-risk (VaR). The given framework incorporates the impact of asymmetry, structural breaks and fat tails in volatility. We generate forecasts of long and short position VaR for the cases when future structural breaks are known as well as unknown. We evaluate its VaR forecasting performance using various backtesting approaches for both long and short positions and compare the results with that from return based models. Our findings indicate that incorporating the impact of structural breaks in volatility indeed improves the accuracy of VaR forecasts of the proposed framework.

Keywords: Extreme value volatility estimator; Structural breaks; Value-at-risk; Asymmetry; Risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s40953-020-00197-w

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