Catastrophe Theory Predicts International Concern for Global Warming

Mohamed M. Mostafa ()
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Mohamed M. Mostafa: Gulf University for Science and Technology

Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2020, vol. 18, issue 3, No 10, 709-731

Abstract: Abstract Global warming is considered one of the most far-reaching environmental problems facing human kind. Thus, understanding international concern for global warming might be the key in creating mitigation and adaptation policies. In this research we aim to assess public concern for global warming at the international level based on a large sample representing 47 nations. To the best of our knowledge, this research is the first to use catastrophe theory to study the influence of factors such as GDP, CO2 emissions, environmental problems and demographic factors on global warming concern. Stochastic cusp models’ results support the affluence and post-materialism hypotheses advocated by Inglehart. However, our findings contradict the objective environmental problems hypothesis postulated by the same environmental scholar. Results also reveal the existence of a global warming environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Finally, our findings show that global warming is driven by demographic factors such as age, religiosity and educational level. The findings of this research highlight the importance of applying nonlinear dynamic techniques in investigating concern for global warming at the international level.

Keywords: Catastrophe theory; Cusp models; Global warming; Post-materialism; Religiosity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s40953-020-00199-8

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