Are Current Account Deficits Sustainable? Evidence from Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Santosh Dash

Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2020, vol. 18, issue 4, No 5, 799-823

Abstract: Abstract This paper examines two issues, namely, whether the current account deficit (CAD) is sustainable, and the degree of sustainability for a panel consisting of 129 countries over the period 1981–2013. To this end, we investigate the relationship between exports and imports for various income and region categories. Our finding from the pooled mean group estimator suggests that CAD is “weakly” sustainable in most of the country groups. This implies that sustainable current account is consistent with the sustainability of external debts. Further, the adjustment coefficient is found to be rather low for all the country groups. This indicates that the speed of convergence toward the long-run equilibrium in the event of short-run disturbances is faster. Finally, we discuss policy implications of our findings.

Keywords: Imports; Exports; CAD; Current account sustainability; Panel ARDL; Pooled mean group estimator; F14; F32; F35 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s40953-020-00195-y

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