All Road User Casualties (Killed) in Great Britain from 1926. Linear and Nonlinear Trends with Persistent Data

Luis Gil-Alana

Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2024, vol. 22, issue 3, No 4, 640 pages

Abstract: Abstract This paper deals with the analysis of road casualties in Great Britain, using annual data since 1926. Based on the persistent nature of the data, fractional integration methods are used that include linear and non-linear (structural breaks) models. The results indicate that when the whole data set is employed the series is nonstationary I(1) implying permanency of shocks. However, considering data starting in 1964 we observe a significant negative time trend along with a lower degree of integration that implies transitory shocks. In order to avoid the abrupt change produced by the break, a nonlinear deterministic trend model based on Chebyshev polynomials in time is also considered with the whole sample, and though the order of integration is much lower than 1, the unit root null hypothesis cannot yet be rejected.

Keywords: Road casualties; Great Britain; Fractional integration; Persistence; Breaks (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C22 C54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40953-024-00398-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:jqecon:v:22:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-024-00398-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/40953

DOI: 10.1007/s40953-024-00398-7

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Quantitative Economics is currently edited by Dilip Nachane and P.G. Babu

More articles in Journal of Quantitative Economics from Springer, The Indian Econometric Society (TIES) Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().