Evaluating Seasonal Weather Risks on Cereal Yield Distributions in Southern India

Souryabrata Mohapatra (), Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh, Dayakar Peddi, Dukhabandhu Sahoo, Auro Kumar Sahoo and Pritisudha Mohanty
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Souryabrata Mohapatra: University of Auckland
Kirtti Ranjan Paltasingh: Ravenshaw University
Dayakar Peddi: Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics
Dukhabandhu Sahoo: Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
Auro Kumar Sahoo: Veer Surendra Sai University of Technology
Pritisudha Mohanty: Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar

Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2025, vol. 23, issue 3, No 6, 785-845

Abstract: Abstract Climate change poses significant threats to Indian agriculture, markedly through its impact on crop yields. While most existing research focuses on climate-sensitive crops like rice, relatively climate-resilient cereals such as sorghum, maize and finger and pearl millets have received less attention. This study uses district-level data from four southern states over 26 years to conduct a moment-based analysis of the effects of various climatic and non-climatic factors on these crop yields. The research offers nuanced insights into how different weather patterns influence crop yields, yield variability (risk) and downside yield risks. The study disaggregates climate variables into seasonal effects, showing that winter maximum temperatures positively affect the yields of maize and sorghum but negatively impact rice. In contrast, summer maximum temperatures generally reduce yields across all crops except finger millet, which thrives due to its heat tolerance. Monsoon rainfall boosts the yields of pearl millet, although excessive rainfall during the monsoon season increases downside risks for maize and rice. Evapotranspiration shows mixed effects, while wind speed tends to negatively affect yields, especially during the summer and monsoon seasons. Additionally, the study finds that excessive irrigation can harm rainfed crops like maize and pearl millet, while technological advancements such as HYV seeds and fertilisers positively impact yields. These findings underscore the urgent need to promote climate-resilient crop varieties, restructure irrigation subsidies and provide targeted support to smallholder farmers to enhance food security in the face of increasingly erratic seasonal conditions.

Keywords: Climate change; Cereal crops; Production risks; Southern India; Moment-based analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 Q18 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s40953-025-00448-8

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