Economic Ripple Effects of COVID-19: A District-Level Panel Analysis of Jobs and Income in Tamil Nadu, India

K. Jafar (), V. Karthick (), Gargi Sridharan (), Kripa Ananthpur () and L. Venkatachalam ()
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K. Jafar: Madras Institute of Development Studies
V. Karthick: Institute for Social and Economic Change
Gargi Sridharan: Madras Institute of Development Studies
Kripa Ananthpur: Madras Institute of Development Studies
L. Venkatachalam: Madras Institute of Development Studies

Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2025, vol. 23, issue 4, No 11, 1233-1257

Abstract: Abstract Using state-level panel data collected over four rounds of a telephone pulse survey (May 2020–August 2021) from Tamil Nadu, this paper examines the vulnerabilities in livelihoods faced by households during COVID-19. By employing a detailed inter- and intra-district analysis, it studies the disproportionate effects of the pandemic on job and income loss reported by households in Tamil Nadu. Results from the non-linear panel regression highlight an acute susceptibility of lower-middle-income districts to job losses compared to other districts. While low-income districts bore the brunt of job losses at the onset of the pandemic, they exhibited resilience, rebounding effectively by the end of the second wave of COVID-19. In contrast, upper-middle-income districts, which are transitional, reported the most substantial income losses during the initial wave, with a notable improvement as the pandemic progressed. High-income districts demonstrated a delayed yet significant vulnerability to income loss, particularly in the second wave of COVID-19. The findings reveal significant disparities at the district level in Tamil Nadu, leading to an uneven distribution of pandemic-induced economic hardships.

Keywords: Covid-19; Tamil Nadu; Inter-district; Job loss; Income loss; Panel data; Panel regression; Tamil Nadu Covid Pulse Survey; D32; D63; I32; J21; J64; P25; R11; R12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s40953-025-00473-7

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