Impact of fertility decline, gender, and social development on economic growth in India

Biswajit Maitra () and Dhritiman Ganguli ()
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Biswajit Maitra: University of Gour Banga
Dhritiman Ganguli: University of Gour Banga

Journal of Social and Economic Development, 2025, vol. 27, issue 2, No 5, 450-471

Abstract: Abstract The fertility rate in India has declined dramatically and reached the replacement level in recent years. The country also ensures significant progress in social development. To our knowledge, research accounting for the drivers of economic growth in India has not emphasized the role of fertility, gender, and social factors. Such an apathetic perspective of research can be regarded as an important diminution, given considerable evidence that the economic growth of many countries is closely associated with such factors. Against this backdrop, this paper explores whether the fertility decline and social development indicators like life expectancy at birth, educational attainment, gender development, and population growth have contributed to the income surge in India. Econometric analysis for 1971–2021 and separately for 1990–2021 identifies that income is associated with fertility rate, gender development, and social development indicators. It corroborates that the fertility decline is instrumental to income surge in the long run, while in the short run, it has a detrimental impact. The life expectancy helps stimulate income for 1990–2021. Educational attainment discloses positive impacts. Besides, a positive impact of gender development is found, while population growth retards income. The findings are meaningful and have implications for achieving social development goals and long-term growth in India.

Keywords: Fertility decline; Life expectancy; Gender development; Educational attainment; Economic growth (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J10 J13 J16 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s40847-024-00345-5

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