Predicting geopolitical instability through GNSS anomalies and air traffic data

Eugene Pik (), João S. D. Garcia, Timothy A. Smith, Ibrahim Kocaman and Matthew Berra
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Eugene Pik: Mevocopter Aerospace
João S. D. Garcia: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Timothy A. Smith: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Ibrahim Kocaman: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Matthew Berra: Loxodrome Labs

Journal of Transportation Security, 2025, vol. 18, issue 1, No 29, 19 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study examines whether GNSS anomalies in ADS-B data can serve as early indicators of geopolitical events, such as civil unrest or military conflict. Prior research suggests a link between air traffic volume and GNSS anomalies, particularly in regions with potential political instability. Using ADS-B data from the OpenSky Network and conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), this study analyzes the relationship between GNSS anomalies and geopolitical tensions, including battles, violent protests, riots, explosions, and violence against civilians. GNSS anomalies are measured by the density of GNSS gaps and deviations, normalized by total traffic in a region. The findings suggest a connection between GNSS disruptions and political unrest, with anomalies often aligning with early conflict stages. The study indicates that GNSS interference patterns, combined with air traffic and other data, may offer insights into the timing and location of emerging geopolitical risks. This research enhances understanding of GNSS interference in aviation and proposes using open-source aviation data for geopolitical risk assessments, potentially enabling aviation stakeholders to mitigate risks in conflict-prone regions and supporting near real-time warnings for geopolitical instabilities.

Keywords: GNSS anomalies; GNSS jamming; GNSS spoofing; Geopolitical instability prediction; ACLED (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s12198-025-00323-w

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