Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance

Luca Salvati ()
Additional contact information
Luca Salvati: University of Macerata

Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2020, vol. 13, issue 2, No 4, 165-186

Abstract: Abstract Metropolitan growth in advanced countries is the result of inherent transformations in morphology and functions, with emergence and consolidation of demographic processes widening the divide between urban and rural areas. The present study proposes an original analysis of urban expansion quantifying the contribution of natural and migration balance in total population growth rate under different transitional stages of a city life cycle (‘urbanization’, ‘suburbanization’, ‘counter-urbanization’, and ‘re-urbanization’). A spatially explicit approach based on Moran’s autocorrelation indexes and a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) supplemented a more traditional analysis of municipal-level census data and vital statistics assessing long-term population dynamics over a complete urban cycle in the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece). Our work demonstrates that natural balance contributed significantly to population growth during ‘urbanization’ and ‘re-urbanization’ stages. Conversely, migration balance contributed more significantly to population growth during ‘suburbanization’ and ‘counter-urbanization’ stages. Results of this study re-contextualize metropolitan cycles within a more general debate on demographic transition.

Keywords: Urban growth; Demographic dynamics; Spatial autocorrelation; Metropolitan region; Greece; R10; R14; R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12076-020-00251-4 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:lsprsc:v:13:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s12076-020-00251-4

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/12076

DOI: 10.1007/s12076-020-00251-4

Access Statistics for this article

Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences is currently edited by Henk Folmer and Amitrajeet A. Batabyal

More articles in Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().