From curse to blessing: a fourier-augmented ARDL analysis of agriculture, geopolitics, and trade in south and central Asia

Sidra Nazir ()

Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 2024, vol. 17, issue 1, No 19, 12 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study introduces a novel fourier-augmented ARDL approach to explore how agricultural commodity prices and geopolitical risk affect trade integration in South and Central Asia, re-examining conventional views on the resource curse and international trade. Findings shows that in the long-run, these factors contribute to a resource curse in South Asia by hindering trade integration, while in Central Asia, they promote trade integration, indicating a resource blessing. Additionally, short-run commodity price volatility triggers a resource curse in both regions. These insights suggest strategies for policymakers to counteract geopolitical risks and optimize natural resource use, potentially transforming the “curse” into a “blessing” for the economic future of these Asian regions.

Keywords: Resource curse; Agriculture commodity; Geopolitical risk; Trade integration; Fourier-augmented ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F02 F14 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s12076-024-00384-w

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