Climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in Egypt’s agricultural sector

Bruce McCarl, Mark Musumba (), Joel Smith, Paul Kirshen, Russell Jones, Akram El-Ganzori, Mohamed Ali, Mossad Kotb, Ibrahim El-Shinnawy, Mona El-Agizy, Mohamed Bayoumi and Riina Hynninen

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2015, vol. 20, issue 7, 1097-1109

Abstract: Egyptian agriculture is vulnerable to potential climate change due to its dependence on irrigated crops, a climate that is too dry to support crops, and increasing water demands. This study analyzes the agricultural implications of climate change and population growth plus possible adaptations strategies. A partial equilibrium model that simulates crop and livestock production along with water flows and non-agricultural water use is used to analyze the impact of climate change. The study examines the implications of climate change effects on crop yields, livestock performance, non-agricultural water use, water supply, irrigation water use, sea level rise and a growing population. Results indicate that climate change damages the Egyptian agricultural sector and the damages increase over time (2030–2060). Prices for agricultural commodities increase and this has a negative effect on consumers but a positive effect on producers. Egypt may reduce these damages by adapting through lower demand growth, raised agricultural technological progress, sea rise protection and water conservation strategies. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Keywords: Climate change; Water use; Population growth; Adaptation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-013-9520-9

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