Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Anton Eitzinger (), Peter Läderach, Beatriz Rodriguez, Myles Fisher, Stephen Beebe, Kai Sonder and Axel Schmidt
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Anton Eitzinger: CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Peter Läderach: CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Beatriz Rodriguez: CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Myles Fisher: CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Stephen Beebe: CIAT International Center for Tropical Agriculture
Kai Sonder: CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
Axel Schmidt: CRS Catholic Relief Services

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2017, vol. 22, issue 5, No 4, 743-760

Abstract: Abstract Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.

Keywords: Climate change; DSSAT drybean submodel; High-impact spots; Simulation modeling; Central America (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-015-9696-2

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