The impact on food security and future adaptation under climate variation: a case study of Taiwan’s agriculture and fisheries

Ching-Hsien Ho, Huu-Sheng Lur, Ming-Hwi Yao, Fang-Ching Liao, Ying-Ting Lin, Nobuyuki Yagi and Hsueh-Jung Lu ()
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Ching-Hsien Ho: National Taiwan Ocean University
Huu-Sheng Lur: National Taiwan University
Ming-Hwi Yao: Executive Yuan
Fang-Ching Liao: Executive Yuan
Ying-Ting Lin: National Taiwan University
Nobuyuki Yagi: Tokyo University
Hsueh-Jung Lu: National Taiwan Ocean University

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2018, vol. 23, issue 3, No 1, 347 pages

Abstract: Abstract According to Food and Agriculture Organization and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, climate change will lead to a severe food-supply problem. In the future, food production will continually decrease because of aggravated effects of climate change, causing food production to continually decrease. Food production will be unable to satisfy the demand of the global population, leading to a food-security crisis. As the world population continues to increase, the shortage of food will become increasingly severe, particularly for those located in “climate impact hotspots” of tropical, subtropical, small-island countries, and countries that are dependent on imports to meet domestic demand such as Taiwan. Numerous Taiwanese studies have suggested that agricultural and fishery productivity has declined because of climate variation, which may cause changes and instability in food quantity and quality, and increase deficiency and uncertainty in the food supply. Therefore, to discuss the risks posed by climate change to the stability of food supply and demand, this paper, taking Taiwan as a case, explored the impact of climate variation on food security and future adaptation strategies. TaiCCAT’s supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA) was adopted here to assess and analyze the current situations of agricultural and fisheries production and supply, as well as future food supply risks, in addition to evaluating the deficiencies in the existing climate adaptation strategies in order to plan and revise feasible future adaptation alternatives. Based on the rule of risk management, the adaptation strategies recommended in this study were differentiated into two categories: proactive adaptation and planned adaptation. Proactive adaptation is emphasized to counter the uncertainty of food production, which increases the difficulty of production and necessity to import food. Conversely, planned adaptation can be used to manage the uncertainty of food supply to implement adjustments in production and marketing, as well as to mitigate the impact of climate variation.

Keywords: Adaptation; Agriculture; Climate variation; Climate risk; Demand; Fisheries; Food security; Resilience; Risk management; TaiCCAT’s supportive system for decision-making (TSSDA); Supply (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9742-3

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