Forecasting industrial water demand in Huaihe River Basin due to environmental changes

Xiao-jun Wang (), Jian-yun Zhang, Shamsuddin Shahid, Shou-hai Bi, Amgad Elmahdi, Chuan-hua Liao and You- de Li
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Xiao-jun Wang: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
Jian-yun Zhang: Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute
Shamsuddin Shahid: Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
Shou-hai Bi: Department of Water Resources, Ministry of Water Resources
Amgad Elmahdi: Bureau of Meteorology
Chuan-hua Liao: Nanjing Tech University
You- de Li: Huaihe River Water Resources Commission

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2018, vol. 23, issue 4, No 1, 469-483

Abstract: Abstract A framework is proposed for forecasting industrial water demand in the context of climate change, economic growth, and technological development. The framework was tested in five sub-basins of Huaihe River of China, namely Upstream of Huaihe River (UH), Middlestream of Huaihe River (MH), Downstream of Huaihe River (DH), Yishusi River (YSSR), and Coastal River of Shandong Peninsula (CSP) to project future changes in industrial water demand under different environment change scenarios. Results showed that industrial water demand in Huaihe River basin will increase in the range of 10 to 44.6% due to economic development, water-saving technological advances, and climate change. The highest increase was projected by general circulation model (GCM) BCC-CSM1–1 (179.16 × 108 m3) and the lowest by GCM GISS-E2-R (132.4 × 108 m3) in 2020, while the GCM BNU-ESM projected the highest increase (190.57 × 108 m3) and GCM CNRM-CM5 the lowest (160.41 × 108 m3) in 2030. Among the different sub-basins, the highest increase was projected in MH sub-basin where industrial water demand is already very high. On the other hand, the lowest increase in industrial water demand was projected in UH sub-basin. The rapid growth of high water-consuming industries and increased water demand for cooling due to temperature rise are the major causes of the sharp increase in industrial water demand in the basin. The framework developed in the study can be used for reliable forecasting of industrial water demand which in turn can help in selection of an appropriate water management strategy for adaptation to global environmental changes.

Keywords: Water demand forecasting; Climate change; Industrial water use; Water resources management; Huaihe River basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-017-9744-1

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