Future private car stock in China: current growth pattern and effects of car sales restriction

Yu Gan, Zifeng Lu (), Hao Cai, Michael Wang, Xin He and Steven Przesmitzki
Additional contact information
Yu Gan: Argonne National Laboratory
Zifeng Lu: Argonne National Laboratory
Hao Cai: Argonne National Laboratory
Michael Wang: Argonne National Laboratory
Xin He: Aramco Services Company
Steven Przesmitzki: Aramco Services Company

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2020, vol. 25, issue 3, No 2, 289-306

Abstract: Abstract Car stock projection is essential to evaluating the energy and environmental impacts of private cars in China. Since the private car ownership rate in China has not reached its saturation level, limited and outdated data used in previous studies has resulted in high uncertainties regarding the functions of car ownership and significantly reduced the robustness of the projection of private car stocks. In this work, we estimate China’s current growth pattern of private car ownership by analyzing more than 6300 pairs of private car ownership and income data collected from various official statistics at the national, provincial, and city levels in the period of 1997–2017. The dataset covers a much wider per-capita disposable income range than national-level data alone and allows us to make satisfactory projections of private car stocks in China up to 2040. We project that the private car stock in China could reach 403 million in 2040, if the current growth pattern of car ownership continues. Significant discrepancies in private car ownership curves are observed for cities with and without car sales restrictions. Without car sales restrictions, we estimate that the private car stock would be even higher at 455 million by 2040, demonstrating the effectiveness of the current restriction policy in controlling car stocks in China. We further quantify the potential impacts of car sales restrictions on future car stock levels by implementing hypothetical national car sales caps. Results show that, although the private car stocks would still continue to grow before 2030, the stock levels would be stable at ~ 280 and ~ 350 million by 2040 for scenarios of 20 and 25 million sales caps, respectively. The impact of private car stock growth on energy consumption in China is also examined. Pump-to-wheels energy consumption of the private car fleet is projected to be 131, 147, 90, and 113 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2040 for scenarios of the current growth pattern, no sales restriction, the 20 million sales cap, and the 25 million sales cap, respectively. Analysis reveals that private car sales restriction and vehicle population growth control could be an effective strategy for energy consumption reduction (thus greenhouse gas emission mitigation) in China, although the development of the automotive industry may be restrained.

Keywords: Private car stock; Car sales; Projection; Sales restrictions; Energy consumption; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11027-019-09868-3 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:masfgc:v:25:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11027-019-09868-3

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11027

DOI: 10.1007/s11027-019-09868-3

Access Statistics for this article

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change is currently edited by Robert Dixon

More articles in Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change from Springer
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().