Ex-ante and ex-post approaches of evaluating carbon emission reduction in urban rail transit

Zijia Wang, Juanjuan Ding, Lichang Wang () and Ziqiang Zhu
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Zijia Wang: Beijing Jiaotong University
Juanjuan Ding: Beijing Jiaotong University
Lichang Wang: Central South University
Ziqiang Zhu: Central South University

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2022, vol. 27, issue 7, No 4, 21 pages

Abstract: Abstract As a high-capacity transportation mode, urban rail is considered to have low per capita energy consumption and emission. The construction of urban rail can transfer the residents’ mode of travel from other high-carbon emission modes to this low-carbon emission mode, to realize the goals of energy conservation and carbon emission reduction. However, at present, there is a lack of prediction of the carbon emission reduction effects before the construction of rail transit systems, and evaluation and verification after the opening of the rail transit systems. Therefore, this study established a set of carbon emission reduction estimation models based on transportation mode transfer. A model was constructed to predict the amount of transportation mode transferred and carbon emission reduction caused by the target project, before its inception, based on the four-stage passenger flow prediction method. Following the opening of the transit system, a model based on passenger survey data to trace the source of rail transit passenger flow was constructed to estimate the carbon emission reduction. The carbon emission reduction of a rail transit line in operation in Beijing was estimated and compared by the two aforementioned methods. The results show that for the lines of good passenger flows benefit, the ex-ante evaluation approach may underestimate the carbon emission reduction effect of rail transit, but the results can still be used as an important basis for environmental assessment of engineering projects. The ex-post evaluation can be used as a more reliable carbon emission reduction accounting measure, and can also be used to adjust the ex-ante evaluation of carbon emission reduction of future rail projects.

Keywords: Urban rail transit; Ex-ante and ex-post passenger flow demand; Carbon emission reduction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-022-10020-x

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