Evaluation and analysis of spatio-temporal variation of water resources carrying capacity and restraining factor: a case study in Anhui Province, China

Wentao Xu, Junliang Jin (), Jianyun Zhang, Yanli Liu, Zhangkang Shu, Guoqing Wang, Zhenxin Bao, Cuishan Liu, Tiesheng Guan and Ruimin He
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Wentao Xu: Hohai University
Junliang Jin: Hohai University
Jianyun Zhang: Hohai University
Yanli Liu: Hohai University
Zhangkang Shu: Hohai University
Guoqing Wang: Hohai University
Zhenxin Bao: Hohai University
Cuishan Liu: Hohai University
Tiesheng Guan: Hohai University
Ruimin He: Hohai University

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 2024, vol. 29, issue 5, No 17, 25 pages

Abstract: Abstract Assessment and analysis of water resource carrying capacity (WRCC) can provide practical guidance for regional water resources planning and management. Taking Anhui Province as an example, an evaluation indicator system is established from five aspects: water resource, society, economy, eco-environment and disaster, entropy weighting method and CRITIC method is combined to calculate the comprehensive weight of indicators. The GRA-TOPSIS model is adopted to evaluate regional WRCC, and the obstacle diagnosis model is used to identify the main factors limiting the improvement of WRCC. Additionally, this study analyzes the spatio-temporal changes of water resource, water resource use efficiency and population, and also examines whether the frequent drought disasters in Anhui Province pose a significant threat to the WRCC. The results show that: (1) The overall WRCC in Anhui Province shows a fluctuating upward trend, with a widening disparity among cities, particularly in southern Anhui Province. (2) Per capita water resources, surface water resources, groundwater resources, urbanization rate, per capita GDP, ecological water consumption and forest coverage rate are the main obstacles for the indicator layer, water resource is the main obstacle for the subsystem layer. (3) The spatio-temporal distribution of water resources in Anhui province is uneven, but the utilization efficiency of water resources is increasing year by year, and drought disasters impact the WRCC in Anhui Province but do not pose a significant threat. This study can provide scientific reference for the development and transformation mode of different regions in Anhui Province and realize the “five-in-one” sustainable development.

Keywords: Water resource carrying capacity; Combined weight; GRA-TOPSIS; Obstacle diagnosis model; Anhui Province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s11027-024-10143-3

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