The last-success stopping problem with random observation times

Alexander Gnedin () and Zakaria Derbazi ()
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Alexander Gnedin: Queen Mary University of London
Zakaria Derbazi: Queen Mary University of London

Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 2025, vol. 101, issue 1, No 1, 27 pages

Abstract: Abstract Suppose N independent Bernoulli trials with success probabilities $$p_1, p_2,\ldots $$ p 1 , p 2 , … are observed sequentially at times of a mixed binomial process. The task is to maximise, by using a nonanticipating stopping strategy, the probability of stopping at the last success. The case $$p_k=1/k$$ p k = 1 / k has been studied by many authors as a version of the familiar best choice problem, where both N and the observation times are random. We consider a more general profile $$p_k=\theta /(\theta +k-1)$$ p k = θ / ( θ + k - 1 ) and assume that the prior distribution of N is negative binomial with shape parameter $$\nu $$ ν , so the arrivals occur at times of a mixed Poisson process. The setting with two parameters offers a high flexibility in understanding the nature of the optimal strategy, which we show is intrinsically related to monotonicity properties of the Gaussian hypergeometric function. Using this connection, we find that the myopic stopping strategy is optimal if and only if $$\nu \ge \theta $$ ν ≥ θ . Furthermore, we derive formulas to assess the winning probability and discuss limit forms of the problem for large N.

Keywords: Optimal stopping; Best-choice problem; Myopic strategy; Hypergeometric functions; Primary: 60G40; Secondary: 60C05 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1007/s00186-024-00880-1

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