Bayesian Model Choice of Grouped t-Copula

Xiaolin Luo () and Pavel V. Shevchenko ()
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Xiaolin Luo: CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics
Pavel V. Shevchenko: CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 2012, vol. 14, issue 4, 1097-1119

Abstract: Abstract One of the most popular copulas for modeling dependence structures is t-copula. Recently the grouped t-copula was generalized to allow each group to have one member only, so that a priori grouping is not required and the dependence modeling is more flexible. This paper describes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method under the Bayesian inference framework for estimating and choosing t-copula models. Using historical data of foreign exchange (FX) rates as a case study, we found that Bayesian model choice criteria overwhelmingly favor the generalized t-copula. In addition, all the criteria also agree on the second most likely model and these inferences are all consistent with classical likelihood ratio tests. Finally, we demonstrate the impact of model choice on the conditional Value-at-Risk for portfolios of six major FX rates.

Keywords: Grouped t-copula; Dependence modeling; Bayesian model choice; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Foreign exchange; 91B30; 46N30; 65C40; 62F15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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DOI: 10.1007/s11009-011-9220-4

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