Approximations for the Long-Term Behavior of an Open-Population Epidemic Model

D. Clancy (), P. D. O’Neill () and P. K. Pollett ()
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D. Clancy: University of Liverpool
P. D. O’Neill: University of Nottingham
P. K. Pollett: University of Queensland

Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 2001, vol. 3, issue 1, 75-95

Abstract: Abstract A simple stochastic epidemic model incorporating births into the susceptible class is considered. An approximation is derived for the mean duration of the epidemic. It is proved that the epidemic ultimately dies out with probability 1. The limiting behavior of the epidemic conditional on non-extinction is studied using approximation methods. Two different diffusion approximations are described and compared.

Keywords: epidemics; stochastic models; quasi-stationary distribution; limiting conditional distribution; diffusion approximations; density dependent processes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001
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DOI: 10.1023/A:1011418208496

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