Multirisks Model and Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities
Philippe Picard (),
Claude Lefèvre () and
Ibrahim Coulibaly ()
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Philippe Picard: Université de Lyon 1
Claude Lefèvre: Université Libre de Bruxelles
Ibrahim Coulibaly: Université Libre de Bruxelles
Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, 2003, vol. 5, issue 3, 337-353
Abstract A multirisks model is constructed that describes the evolution in discrete-time of an insurance portfolio covering several interdependent risks. The main problem under study is the determination of the probabilities of ruin over a finite horizon, for one or more risks. An underlying polynomial structure in the expression of these probabilities is exhibited. This result is then used to provide a simple recursive method for their numerical evaluation. Furthermore, it is shown qualitatively that a stronger positive-type dependence between the risks increases the non-ruin probabilities. Some illustrations enhance the efficiency, in time and precision, of the developed algorithm.
Keywords: multiple risks; discrete-time model; probabilities of ruin; polynomial structure; numerical evaluation; orthant dependence; concordance order (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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