The dynamics and long-term availability of the total resources from the geosphere and technosphere—re-examined

Friedrich-W. Wellmer () and Marius Kern ()
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Friedrich-W. Wellmer: acatech - National Academy of Science and Engineering
Marius Kern: German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the Federal Institute of Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR)

Mineral Economics, 2024, vol. 37, issue 2, No 5, 227-244

Abstract: Abstract After consideration of some basic principles of raw material consumption we conclude that — with the exception of the nutrients nitrogen, phosphate and potassium — humankind does not need raw materials as such, but only the intrinsic function they can provide. For fulfilling these functions we have at our disposal three resources: the geosphere, the technosphere, and the most important resource of all, human creativity. Human ingenuity and curiosity by its very nature strives to find an answer to the fundamental question of supply and demand, that is, whether adequate availability can be secured in the light of expected consumption growth. Commonly, intensity of use factors (IOU) — unit raw material related to unit gross national product (GDP) — are used for this purpose. This approach has been criticized because of other influences on raw material consumption. In this article, world-wide statistics are used to deal with the objections and to see if growth rates have already peaked and whether the ratio of primary to secondary production follows a positive trend. The commodities investigated are aluminum/bauxite, copper, zinc, nickel, steel, and platinum. As far as growth rates are concerned we are beyond the point of inflexion in aluminum, copper, zinc, and nickel. For steel, the answer is uncertain. In terms of relative share of secondary use of raw materials, all commodities show a positive trend towards a better circular, self-sustaining economy, with aluminum and zinc more pronounced in this regard than others, like copper or steel. Finally, it can be definitely affirmed that we are not running out of resource possibilities, not even for copper.

Keywords: Natural resources; Geosphere; Technosphere; Recycling; Intensity of use factors; Growth rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1007/s13563-023-00413-y

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