Analysis of the susceptibility of interdependent infrastructures using fuzzy input–output inoperability model: the case of flood hazards in Tehran

Sina Samimi, Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad and Mohammad Mojtahedi ()
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Sina Samimi: Islamic Azad University
Sadoullah Ebrahimnejad: Islamic Azad University
Mohammad Mojtahedi: The University of New South Wales

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 100, issue 1, No 6, 69-88

Abstract: Abstract Advancement in technology has contributed to increment in complexity of systems and infrastructures. Furthermore, it has complicated the management of systems to deal with natural hazards. Input–output inoperability model (IIM) is a simple method to characterize the impacts of natural hazards on interconnected infrastructures. In this paper, the impacts of a flood hazard on six critical infrastructures in Tehran metropolitan have been assessed by using IIM. The computational results show that energy and transportation infrastructures are the most influencing infrastructures, while emergency services and healthcare infrastructures are the most influenced infrastructures. All data required to evaluate this case study have been collected using questionnaires and converted to fuzzy interdependency values. To increase decision-making power, the developed fuzzy matrix has been arranged for different risk levels (from absolutely optimistic to absolutely pessimistic) and confidence levels (from absolutely confident to absolutely non-confident). Afterward, the interdependency matrix has been deffuzified, and inoperability of infrastructures has been calculated by the IIM for seven different initial conditions. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted to incorporate the risk levels and confidence levels to determine values of inoperability under the above-mentioned conditions. The ranking for both of the influencing and the influenced infrastructures has also been provided. This ranking helps decision makers to manage natural hazard risks effectively by appropriate resource allocation. It also helps to realize the interdependencies among infrastructures and to determine the inoperability of infrastructures before natural hazards. This would help decision makers to mitigate the risk and prepare the society well in advance.

Keywords: Input–output inoperability model; Complex system; Risk analysis; Natural hazard; Critical infrastructure; Fuzzy number (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03799-7

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