Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment

Oscar Correa, Francisco García, Gabriel Bernal, Omar Darío Cardona () and Carlos Rodriguez
Additional contact information
Oscar Correa: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Francisco García: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Gabriel Bernal: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Omar Darío Cardona: Universidad Nacional de Colombia
Carlos Rodriguez: Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 100, issue 1, No 18, 345-361

Abstract: Abstract A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The region under study is divided into areas of homogeneous rain hazard. For each homogeneous area, a probability model is fitted using state-of-the-art statistical methods, for each accumulation time considered. Thresholds are obtained by the definition of confidence intervals. Instantaneous accumulated rains, measured in real-time, are used to calculate the instantaneous probabilities of a landslide at each area and accumulation time. The maximum instantaneous probability determines the critical accumulated rain and sets the issued warning level. In addition, the model is tested, retrospectively, with the data for the disaster of April 19, 2017, in Manizales, Colombia, where 38 rainfall-triggered landslides killed 17 people and affected more than 3126 families.

Keywords: Landslides; Rainfall thresholds; Warning systems; Probabilistic model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03815-w Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03815-w

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03815-w

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().