Detrended fluctuation analysis of seismicity and order parameter fluctuations before the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake

Efthimios S. Skordas (), Stavros-Richard G. Christopoulos () and Nicholas V. Sarlis ()
Additional contact information
Efthimios S. Skordas: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens
Stavros-Richard G. Christopoulos: Coventry University
Nicholas V. Sarlis: National and Kapodistrian University of Athens

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 100, issue 2, No 11, 697-711

Abstract: Abstract Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) has been recently applied for the investigation of temporal correlations between the earthquake magnitudes before major earthquakes. Here, we employ DFA together with natural time analysis in order to identify precursory phenomena to the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake on July 6, 2019. The analysis reveals that a minimum of the variability of the order parameter of seismicity in natural time is observed almost a month before the occurrence of this earthquake. This minimum was observed when DFA indicated the development of the presence of long-range correlations which turned to an almost random behavior before the strong earthquake. Upon starting the study of seismicity in natural time from the minimization of the variability on June 5, 2019, we conclude that criticality has been reached at 22:41 UTC on July 2, 2019, almost 3 days before the earthquake occurrence. The application of an algorithm based on the coherent noise model would have led to a warning 3 min before the occurrence of the M7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake.

Keywords: Detrended fluctuation analysis; Earthquakes; Natural time analysis; Order parameter of seismicity; Coherent noise model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03834-7 Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:100:y:2020:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03834-7

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03834-7

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().