MERLIN: a flood hazard forecasting system for coastal river reaches

Ignacio Fraga (), Luis Cea () and Jerónimo Puertas ()
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Ignacio Fraga: CITIC, University of A Coruña
Luis Cea: University of A Coruña
Jerónimo Puertas: University of A Coruña

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 100, issue 3, No 13, 1193 pages

Abstract: Abstract This study presents MERLIN, an innovative flood hazard forecasting system for predicting discharges and water levels at flood prone areas of coastal catchments. Discharge forecasts are preceded by a hindcast stage. During this stage, the hydrological models assimilate soil moisture and hydro-meteorological observations to evaluate soil infiltration capacities at the beginning of the discharge forecast. Predicted discharges are converted to water-level forecasts using the hydraulic model Iber+, a GPU-parallelized bidimensional flow model. Hydraulic models also assimilate tidal-level forecasts in order to define the boundary conditions of the models. The performance of MERLIN was evaluated over 4 months at three coastal catchments of 4.95, 16.96, and 83.9 km2. Forecasted discharges and water levels presented a good fit to observed values, especially at the larger catchments, which confirmed the potential utility of the presented system.

Keywords: Flood hazard forecast; Early warning system; Hydraulic modelling; Hydrological modelling; Flood risk management (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03855-7

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