Anomaly-based synoptic analysis on the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 in Japan

Yang Ai () and Weihong Qian ()
Additional contact information
Yang Ai: Peking University
Weihong Qian: Peking University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 101, issue 3, No 2, 668 pages

Abstract: Abstract The Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 caused huge social impact and economic losses in Japan. In this study, the anomaly-based synoptic analysis is applied to identify the features and structures of the anomalous synoptic systems during the event period. Results show that the heavy rainfall occurred along the trough of anomalous geopotential height (GPH) and the shear line of anomalous winds at the low troposphere. The anomalous synoptic analysis, by removing the temporal climatology from the total variables, can directly reflect the large-scale features of the event, which includes the actual position of the Baiu front, the pathway of anomalous moist air masses associated with anomalous synoptic systems such as the anomalies of Okhotsk cold high and the Northwest Pacific subtropical high. Meanwhile, the opposite signs between 200 and 850 hPa GPH anomalies, which matches observed rainfall records well, could be a good indicator of the potential heavy rain period. The product of the ensemble prediction systems from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is able to predict such potential anomalous signals of the Heavy Rain Event for 4–5 days in advance.

Keywords: Anomaly-based synoptic analysis; Extreme rainfall; Potential signal; Weather forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-020-03888-y Abstract (text/html)
Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:101:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-020-03888-y

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/11069

DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03888-y

Access Statistics for this article

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards is currently edited by Thomas Glade, Tad S. Murty and Vladimír Schenk

More articles in Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards from Springer, International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Sonal Shukla () and Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing ().