Reconstruction of a flash flood event using a 2D hydrodynamic model under spatial and temporal variability of storm

Vasilis Bellos (), Ino Papageorgaki (), Ioannis Kourtis (), Harris Vangelis (), Ioannis Kalogiros () and George Tsakiris ()
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Vasilis Bellos: National Technical University of Athens
Ino Papageorgaki: National Technical University of Athens
Ioannis Kourtis: National Technical University of Athens
Harris Vangelis: National Technical University of Athens
Ioannis Kalogiros: National Observatory of Athens
George Tsakiris: National Technical University of Athens

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 101, issue 3, No 5, 726 pages

Abstract: Abstract In this paper, the catastrophic flash flood event which occurred in the western part of Attica (Greece) in November 2017 is reconstructed. The flood event hit the town of Mandra, causing 24 fatalities and huge damages in the properties and the infrastructure. The flood hydrograph was derived using the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model FLOW-R2D. Attention was drawn on the uncertainties of the model output due to the uncertainty of the estimated parameters such as infiltration, friction and the uncertainty of input data. Due to the computational burden related to the model, a global sensitivity analysis based on Morris method was performed. Then, a Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis was performed on the two most influential factors. It was concluded that even the results of the physically based hydrodynamic models are characterised by uncertainties. However, the capability of the hydrodynamic models to describe in detail the dynamics of the overland flow is the main advantage of these models against the conventional hydrological models. It is concluded that the rational use of physically based models for analysing complex storm phenomena with high variable spatial and temporal distribution can lead to a more accurate range of magnitudes of flood peak.

Keywords: Flood reconstruction; Flash flood; Hydrograph; 2D hydrodynamic model; Catchment scale; Mandra (Attica) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03891-3

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