Drought assessment of southwestern China based on HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario

Xianxian Leng, Xiaogang Liu (), Yanli Gao, Yujie Liu, Qiliang Yang, Guangzhao Sun, Youliang Peng and Yifeng Huang
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Xianxian Leng: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Xiaogang Liu: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Yanli Gao: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Yujie Liu: Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
Qiliang Yang: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Guangzhao Sun: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Youliang Peng: Kunming University of Science and Technology
Yifeng Huang: Kunming University of Science and Technology

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 102, issue 1, No 14, 307-334

Abstract: Abstract This paper analyzed the drought situation in southwestern China with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) on multiple time scales. The spatial distribution, seasonal variation and features of drought in southwestern China were examined separately by drought frequency, probability of non-exceedance and runs theory. The results showed that the precipitation sequence will change suddenly near 2073 and an obvious, long-term drought will occur after 2073 due to the decline in precipitation. The spatial distribution of drought frequency indicated that the drought frequency will grow obviously in 2071–2100, and the growth rate will increase from the peripheral to the center of the region. The probability of non-exceedance for SPEI-1 less than − 1.0 will be 14.6% in the spring of 2011–2040, grow in 2041–2070 and reach 25.9% in 2071–2100, while that of SPEI in winter will gradually increase in all periods. When the SPEI-12 is smaller than − 1.0, the non-exceedance probability of the index in all seasons of 1981–2100 was and will be growing gradually, indicating that climate change has and will cause severe droughts in spring and winter from 1981 through 2100, especially the medium- and long-term drought. Through the analysis of the SPI and SPEI time sequences by runs theory, it is observed that the drought severity predicted by SPI-12 was and will be increasing over time, and the long-term drought will become more serious. On all time scales, if the SPEI is smaller than − 1.0, the drought duration will gradually increase from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100, indicating the drought in the study region will worsen due to climate change.

Keywords: Standardized precipitation index; Standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index; The sudden changes; Spatial distribution; Runs theory; Drought character (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03928-7

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