Inter-comparison of model, satellite and in situ tropical cyclone heat potential in the North Indian Ocean

Babita Jangir (), D. Swain, Samar Kumar Ghose, Rishav Goyal and T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar
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Babita Jangir: Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
D. Swain: Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
Samar Kumar Ghose: Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
Rishav Goyal: Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar
T. V. S. Udaya Bhaskar: Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (MoES)

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 102, issue 2, No 2, 557-574

Abstract: Abstract The North Indian Ocean (NIO) experiences frequent tropical cyclones (TCs). TC heat potential (TCHP) is a major ocean parameter responsible for TC genesis and intensification changes. In this study, Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (INCOIS-GODAS) model and satellite-derived TCHP data from National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are validated against TCHP from in situ profiles in the NIO during the period 2011–2013 for buoys and during 2005–2015 for Argo data. Data from eight moored buoys (6 in Bay of Bengal and 2 in Arabian Sea) under the Ocean Moored Buoy Network are used. Comparison of model and in situ TCHP yields correlation coefficients (root-mean-square errors in kJ/cm2) of 0.74 (17.75), 0.59 (15.34), 0.70 (17.68), 0.60 (22.24), 0.57 (19.52), 0.73 (17.88) and 0.77 (39.17) at buoy locations BD08, BD09, BD10, BD11, BD13, AD06 and AD10. The scatter indices between collocated TCHP values at these locations were 0.32, 0.22, 0.30, 0.30, 0.31, 0.58 and 0.41. Further, it was found that satellite-based TCHP from NRSC match better with in situ as compared to near-real-time TCHP data obtained from NOAA. TCHP from INCOIS-GODAS model, NOAA delayed time data and NRSC TCHP data set are also in good agreement with those from Argo profiles. As a case study, model and in situ TCHP were compared during a TC, “Thane” at two buoy locations (BD11 and BD13), closest to its track. The analysis revealed underestimation of model TCHP at BD11, but good correlation at BD13. This could be attributed to the existence of a strong temperature inversion at BD11. It is observed that although the model is able to capture features like barrier and inversion layers, the temperature and depth of such layers are underestimated. Further, the recovery time from the influence of TC on the ocean subsurface is also much longer in case of the model which thus needs to be fine-tuned. Seasonal comparison of TCHP from various sources with in situ estimated TCHP also shows better correlation between all the products for the pre-summer monsoon compared to the post-summer monsoon season.

Keywords: Tropical cyclone heat potential; OMNI buoy; Tropical cyclone; Cyclone Thane (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03756-4

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