Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil

Richarde Marques Silva, Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos (), Jorge Flávio Cazé Braga Costa Silva, Alexandro Medeiros Silva and Reginaldo Moura Brasil Neto
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Richarde Marques Silva: Federal University of Paraíba
Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos: Federal University of Paraíba
Jorge Flávio Cazé Braga Costa Silva: Federal University of Paraíba
Alexandro Medeiros Silva: Federal University of Paraíba
Reginaldo Moura Brasil Neto: Federal University of Paraíba

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 102, issue 3, No 4, 829-849

Abstract: Abstract The main goals of this study are to better understand the spatial and temporal variabilities in rainfall and to identify rainfall trends and erosivity for the period from 1963 to 1991 in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, which is located in Paraíba, northeastern Brazil. This study analyzes annual rainfall trends on a regional scale by using monthly data from 13 rainfall stations. For this purpose, the nonparametric Mann–Kendall and Sen methods were used in the analysis. Descriptive statistics methods and interpolation techniques were also used for spatial–temporal analysis of the annual rainfall. A detailed statistical analysis applied to the time series of all the stations indicates that the rainfall presents substantial annual spatial–temporal variability and a negative trend (decrease) in the mean rainfall at most of the rainfall stations in the catchment during the study period. The results only showed a positive trend for the Soledade and Pocinhos stations. The distribution of positive and negative trends in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment is extremely irregular, and the changes in the study area are more significant compared to those identified in other studies. Graphic abstract

Keywords: Mann–Kendall test; Rainfall variability; Sen’s test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03926-9

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