A dynamic stability analysis for the Olinalá landslide, northeastern Mexico

Jorge A. Salinas-Jasso (), Juan C. Montalvo-Arrieta and José R. Chapa-Guerrero
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Jorge A. Salinas-Jasso: Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León
Juan C. Montalvo-Arrieta: Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León
José R. Chapa-Guerrero: Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 102, issue 3, No 24, 1225-1248

Abstract: Abstract We have evaluated slope stability conditions considering different triggering conditions for the Olinalá landslide, a paleo-landslide located in the northern front of the Sierra Madre Oriental, northeastern Mexico. Models included assessment of the influence of both aseismic (suggesting different groundwater levels) and a strong earthquake shaking scenario. Results suggest the Olinalá landslide is relatively stable even considering a fully-saturated hydrological stage through the slope (e.g., after the impact of major hurricanes), a typical situation in the study area. Considering these circumstances, there is no evidence of a reactivation of the landslide after the impact of hurricanes in the region. Conversely, hazardous scenarios result after evaluate a combined influence of moderate seismicity and extreme hydrometeorological conditions. This study suggests that some geomorphological features observed in northeastern Mexico are unfeasible without considering the effect of earthquakes. Our approach could model the behavior of pseudostable old landslides through the region, in the face of future reactivations and risk situations.

Keywords: Landslide hazard; Olinalá landslide; Dynamic stability analysis; Northeastern Mexico; Seismic scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03954-5

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