Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds

Makenzie J. Krocak (), Sean Ernst, Jinan N. Allan, Wesley Wehde, Joseph T. Ripberger, Carol L. Silva and Hank C. Jenkins-Smith
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Makenzie J. Krocak: University of Oklahoma
Sean Ernst: University of Oklahoma
Jinan N. Allan: University of Oklahoma
Wesley Wehde: University of Oklahoma
Joseph T. Ripberger: University of Oklahoma
Carol L. Silva: University of Oklahoma
Hank C. Jenkins-Smith: University of Oklahoma

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 102, issue 3, No 30, 1368 pages

Abstract: Abstract When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.

Keywords: Tornado warnings; Risk analysis; Information reception; False alarm effect (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03970-5

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