Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India

Rajesh Kumar Sahu, Jiteshwar Dadich, Bhishma Tyagi (), Naresh Krishna Vissa and Jyotsna Singh
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Rajesh Kumar Sahu: National Institute of Technology Rourkela
Jiteshwar Dadich: National Institute of Technology Rourkela
Bhishma Tyagi: National Institute of Technology Rourkela
Naresh Krishna Vissa: National Institute of Technology Rourkela
Jyotsna Singh: Shanti Raj Bhawan

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 102, issue 3, No 39, 1569 pages

Abstract: Abstract The present study analyses thermodynamic indices variation over three sites of eastern Indian region: Bhubaneswar, Kolkata and Ranchi, associated with pre-monsoon thunderstorms for 20-year period (1987–2006) for Bhubaneswar and Kolkata and 15 years (1996–2010) for Ranchi. All three sites are showing a rise in humidity over the period, unveiling the climate change over the region. We evaluated the threshold values of various thermodynamic indices for periods of 5-year intervals at each site based on skill score analysis. The indices associated with potential, convective, latent instability and moisture are showing varying threshold values over all the sites, and some of the indices are showing a definite increase/decrease in these threshold values. All three sites are showing a decrease in thunderstorm frequency over the study period. The work identifies the thermodynamic indices, which tend to capture the global warming impact in the threshold values by either showing an increase or decrease with the time at each site. The results advocate that for a long-term analysis of thermodynamic indices, the threshold values may change from one period to another.

Keywords: Thunderstorm; Thermodynamic indices; Skill score analysis; Global warming; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-03978-x

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