An improved potential intensity estimate for Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones

Russell H. Glazer () and M. M. Ali
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Russell H. Glazer: Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
M. M. Ali: Florida State University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2020, vol. 104, issue 3, No 32, 2635-2644

Abstract: Abstract The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is the most dangerous tropical cyclone (TC) region to humans in the world due to a combination of geographical and environmental factors. TC potential intensity (PI) estimates are a useful forecasting tool for evaluating favorable thermodynamic conditions for TC intensification; however, it assumes an idealized environment which omits several TC–environmental interactions. The present study compares the PI calculated using the SST (SST-PI) and the PI calculated taking into account ocean surface cooling and vertical wind shear (Environmental-PI) to the intensification rates of BoB TCs. A significant improvement is found in terms of explained variance when using Env-PI (13.5%) rather than SST-PI (3.5%). For slower moving TCs, the improvement is larger between Env-PI (25.5%) and SST-PI (4.9%). This study demonstrates that including an estimate of both oceanic and dynamical TC interactions in PI estimates lead to an improved estimate of future TC intensification in the BoB.

Keywords: Bay of Bengal; Tropical cyclones; Potential intensity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04289-x

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