Slope hybrid reliability analysis considering the uncertainty of probability-interval using three-parameter Weibull distribution

Tonghui Wei, Wenjie Zuo, Hongwei Zheng and Feng Li ()
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Tonghui Wei: Jilin University
Wenjie Zuo: Jilin University
Hongwei Zheng: Jilin University
Feng Li: Jilin University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 105, issue 1, No 27, 565-586

Abstract: Abstract A reliability model is proposed to solve the problem of hybrid uncertainty with both random and interval variables in slope engineering. A hybrid uncertainty model based on the dimension reduction method and Taylor expansion is constructed to approximate the limit state function. Using the polynomial theorem and variable transformation method, the origin and center moments’ interval of the limit state function are calculated. Moment information is applied to the expansion of a three-parameter Weibull distribution, and the cumulative distribution function and probability density function of limit state function are determined. As a result, the failure probability interval of the slope is calculated. The interval uncertainty problem is transformed into an interval certainty problem using Taylor expansion without solving for the statistical moment of limit state function using multiple integrals and iteratively searching for the most probable failure points. The numerical results from two slopes show that the proposed method is effective and feasible.

Keywords: Hybrid reliability analysis of slope; Strength reduction method; Probability of failure; Dimension reduction method; Three-parameter Weibull distribution (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04323-y

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