Multi-scenario flash flood hazard assessment based on rainfall–runoff modeling and flood inundation modeling: a case study

Yue Zhang, Ying Wang (), Yunxia Zhang, Qingzu Luan and Heping Liu
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Yue Zhang: Beijing Normal University
Ying Wang: Beijing Normal University
Yunxia Zhang: National Disaster Reduction Center of China
Qingzu Luan: Beijing Municipal Climate Center
Heping Liu: Hydrology Bureau of Liaoning Province

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 105, issue 1, No 44, 967-981

Abstract: Abstract Flash flooding is one of the most devastating natural disasters in China. A quantitative flash flood hazard assessment is important for saving human lives and reducing economic losses. In this study, integrated rainfall–runoff modeling (HEC-HMS) and hydraulic modeling (FLO-2D) schemes were used to assess flash flood inundation areas and depths under 5-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year, 200-year, 500-year and 1000-year rainfall scenarios in a mountainous basin (Hadahe River Basin, HRB) in northern China. The overall flash flood hazard in HRB is high. Under the eight rainfall scenarios, the total flooded area ranged from 6 to 8.73 km2; the flash flood inundation areas with depths of 1–2 m, 2–3 m, and over 3 m was 1.53–2.69 km2, 0.63–1.44 km2 and 0.33–1.11 km2, respectively; and these areas accounted for 25.5–30.8%, 10.5–16.5% and 5.5–12.7% of the whole flooded area. The total flooded area increases rapidly with the return period increasing from 5 to 200 years, and the increase gradient slows when the return period is greater than 200 years. In the downstream area of HRB, the flash flood area with inundation depths greater than 1 m accounted for 54–71% of the flooded area under the eight scenarios. In comparison to other areas in the HRB, the downstream area is at the highest risk given its extensive inundation and substantial property exposure. The quantitative hazard assessment framework presented in this study can be applied in other mountainous basins for flash flood defense and disaster management purposes.

Keywords: Flash flood; Quantitative hazard assessment; Hydrological modeling; Hydraulic modeling; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04345-6

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