Synoptic climatology of nuisance flooding along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts, USA

Anthony J. Vega (), Paul Miller, Robert V. Rohli and Jason Heavilin
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Anthony J. Vega: Clarion University
Robert V. Rohli: Louisiana State University
Jason Heavilin: Clarion University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 105, issue 2, No 6, 1297 pages

Abstract: Abstract Nuisance flooding (NF; also known as high-tide, or “sunny day” flooding) is an increasingly prevalent phenomenon afflicting coastal developments worldwide. NF often results when high tides, exacerbated by global sea level rise, coincide with onshore-directed surface winds. The elevated tidal condition, compounded by frictionally forced ocean currents, then inundates coastal infrastructure, posing a non-life-threatening inconvenience for local residents. Even though NF events are formed by a coupling of atmospheric and oceanic conditions, the large-scale atmospheric circulations favorable for NF have received little attention. Using a 40 year NF database derived from coastal gauge data, this study identifies the mid-tropospheric synoptic atmospheric patterns within days of NF events along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts of the USA. ERA-Interim reanalysis supplies 500 hPa geopotential height patterns over North America that coincide with NF events. Subsequently, a principal components analysis is performed upon all NF-associated 500 hPa patterns, disaggregated by region (New England, Mid-Atlantic, and Gulf Coast), to identify dominant intra-variability NF-related circulations. Consistent with prior work, results show that NF frequency is increasing with time. Further, each region is characterized by a unique set of dominant NF synoptic patterns. Most patterns have clear physical associations to NF mechanisms, such as a nearby 500 hPa trough that would support a surface cyclone and strong onshore surface winds, or a mid-level high-pressure cell that would direct onshore-oriented return flow along its western periphery. However, some patterns correspond less obviously to oft-referenced NF mechanisms and may instead reflect low-frequency modes of variability and/or localized influences.

Keywords: Nuisance flooding; Synoptic climatology; Gulf of Mexico coast; U.S. Atlantic coast; Coastal flooding; Natural hazards; Climate change; Climate variability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04354-5

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