Nexus between vulnerability and adaptive capacity of drought-prone rural households in northern Bangladesh

Roquia Salam, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam (), Badhon Kumar Shill, G. M. Monirul Alam (), Md. Hasanuzzaman, Md. Morshadul Hasan, Sobhy M. Ibrahim and Roger C. Shouse
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Roquia Salam: Begum Rokeya University
Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam: Begum Rokeya University
Badhon Kumar Shill: Begum Rokeya University
G. M. Monirul Alam: Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University
Md. Hasanuzzaman: Begum Rokeya University
Md. Morshadul Hasan: University of Science and Technology of China
Sobhy M. Ibrahim: King Saud University
Roger C. Shouse: Sichuan University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 106, issue 1, No 21, 509-527

Abstract: Abstract Bangladesh is one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable countries. The appraisal of household vulnerability and capacity to adapt under climate change is therefore crucial for developing effective disaster risk reduction policies. This study explored the nexus between vulnerability and capacity of rural drought-prone households using survey data of 400 respondents from northern Bangladesh. Through extensive rigorous literature review, 22 and 25 indicators were employed to develop the vulnerability and capacity index, respectively. Co-occurrence network analysis was employed to show the nexus among different classes of capacity and vulnerability. Spearman correlation was also performed to analyze the nexus between vulnerability and capacity. The results reveal that households’ vulnerability varies across livelihood assets (human, social, financial, physical, and natural), but capacity follows a similar distribution pattern. A significant negative association was found between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, whereas the strong correlations between social and human capital, human and financial capital, social and financial capital, and physical and natural capital were identified in this study. Future projection (up to 2024) using support vector machine algorithm shows that overall drought adaptive capacity will increase, while vulnerability will decrease. The outcomes of this study would help planners and policy-makers in planning and taking proper initiatives that might be useful for adopting efficient disaster risk reduction strategies.

Keywords: Vulnerability index; Capacity index; Jackknife test; Co-occurrence network analysis; Support vector machine; Northern Bangladesh (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04473-z

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