Interoccurrence times and seismic hazard for upper-crustal volcanic chain earthquakes in El Salvador: are they Poissonian distributed?

Walter Salazar ()
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Walter Salazar: Catholic University of El Salvador, UNICAES

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 107, issue 2, No 19, 1443-1465

Abstract: Abstract We study the statistical properties of time intervals between successive earthquakes for a given magnitude in the El Salvador volcanic chain, namely hereafter the interoccurrence times employing both the cumulative Poisson and the Weibull probability distributions. The dataset comprises magnitudes between M 4.0 and 6.93 within the years 1528–2018. We suggest that ITs pose the Weibull distribution for all events and that the Poisson distribution co-exists for ITs longer than the Weibull mean. Based on the probabilities distribution fit, we compute for engineering purposes ground motion and elastic response spectra for 5% damping employing time-dependent and independent seismic hazard models at San Salvador city, observing covariance of less than 7% amongst the models. The disaggregation analysis suggests that a magnitude 6.3 contributes most to the hazard and coincides with the magnitude bin of 6.25–6.50, which has the maximum conditional probability in the time-dependent model.

Keywords: Cumulative probability distribution; Elapsed time; Conditional probability; Response spectra (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04640-w

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