Risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster based on grey matter-element analysis theory

Huafeng Xu (), Kexin Xu () and Yingjie Yang ()
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Huafeng Xu: Henan University of Urban Construction
Kexin Xu: University of Glasgow
Yingjie Yang: De Montfort University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 107, issue 3, No 32, 2693-2707

Abstract: Abstract Carrying out risk assessments of agricultural drought disasters is helpful to understanding agricultural drought quantitatively and scientifically guiding drought prevention and drought relief work. In this paper, the risk assessment system and evaluation index of drought disasters are constructed, and they are composed of a drought risk subsystem, drought exposure subsystem, disaster damage sensitivity subsystem and drought resistance subsystem. Based on the grey matter-element analysis method, the agricultural drought risk evaluation model was established. Grey matter-element analysis method was used to evaluate the risk of agricultural drought in 18 regions of Henan Province, China in 2019. The results validation showed that high drought disaster risk area in Henan province is located in the western, north and the central area. This study provides a new method for the risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters. Understanding the risk in the study area can improve agricultural system resilience. This model could be used to provide support for increasing agricultural drought disaster resilience and risk management efficiency.

Keywords: Agricultural drought disaster; Risk assessment; Grey matter element (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04681-1

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