Drought disaster risk management based on optimal allocation of water resources

Xiao Liu, Ping Guo (), Qian Tan, Fan Zhang, Yan Huang and Youzhi Wang
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Xiao Liu: China Agricultural University
Ping Guo: China Agricultural University
Qian Tan: China Agricultural University
Fan Zhang: China Agricultural University
Yan Huang: Heilongjiang Province Hydraulic Research Institute
Youzhi Wang: China Agricultural University

Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, 2021, vol. 108, issue 1, No 13, 285-308

Abstract: Abstract Drought risk management has gradually emerged as an important discipline and the traditional negative drought management changes to active drought management. Drought risk assessment and control are the core of drought risk management. In this study, based on precipitation anomaly (Pa) and soil moisture content anomaly index, the stochastic drought index model was established to calculate the drought distribution under different probability. Considering risk of disaster (H), vulnerability of the environment (S), exposure of the disaster bearing body (V), and disaster prevention and mitigation capability (C), a water resource optimization allocation model based on drought disaster risk assessment model was established to minimize the regional drought disaster risk. The developed models were used in Heilongjiang Province, China, and the results showed that: (1) the drought indexes based on the stochastic method can reflect the regional drought under different probabilities, providing managers with comprehensive drought information to manage the disaster; (2) the optimal allocation of water resources can reduce the risk of drought disaster in drought-prone months and drought-prone areas; and (3) studying drought risk assessment and regulation considering grain yield can be used to effectively understand and alleviate drought effects in the study area, reduce farmers' economic losses and ensure local food security. Graphic abstract

Keywords: Drought risk disaster assessment; Drought risk disaster management; Grain yield; Stochastic method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04680-2

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